Wednesday, March 7, 2012

AP US Gov Elections and Campaigns Notes

3/6/12
How has campaign finance reform evolved over the years?
I.               Money
A.             Money is used for ads, TV time, paying staff, PR people, people to write speeches, people who buy them things, travel expenses, direct mail appeals, etc
B.             The party can also raise money for its candidates, and candidates can use as much of their own money as they want (freedom of speech)
C.            Money is speech.  Case that determined this was Buckley vs. Valeo.  You could have restrictions but you can’t outright ban the giving of money to candidates
D.            Differences between congressional and presidential elections
1.             Money in congressional elections is completely private- it’s only from the people, not taxpayer money and no money from gov’t
2.             Presidential is a combination of private and public funds- a person can give money and the government can give money. The government money takes 2 forms- for every private donation less than $250 the government gives matching funds
3.             The govt. money takes two forms. For primaries  candidates can get matching funds from govt. for every donation that is $250 or less which encourages people to donate. For the general election, the govt gives a huge sum to each major candidate and if minor parties got more than 5% of the vote in a previous general election to receive some money
a)             If the candidates take the 80 million from the govt. they are then limited in the amount of money they can raise on their own. So the trend has been to not take that public money since they can raise more on their own
E.             Independent Expenditure
1.             An organization that is not connected to a campaign spends money to influence and election
2.             Run adds to support a certain candidate or issue
3.             Cannot coordinate with a campaign
4.             How were their actions limited before citizens united?
a)             Restrictions came from McCain-Feingold, which was a campaign finance reform act in 2002
(1)           The act said that independent expenditures cannot run ads that clearly endorse a candidate 60 days before a general election and 30 days before a primary.  Citizens United overturned that using judicial review
(2)           No soft money (unlimited funds that you can give to a political organization) to political parties
(3)           Raised individual contributions from $1,000 to $2,000 and can be adjusted
b)             The loophole in McCain-Feingold was 527’s (independent expenditure groups that were created to deal with McCain-Feingold).   You could give as much money to a 527, which would run ads attacking a candidate or discussing a specific issue
F.             Reviewing Money in Campaigns/ Elections
1.             1971/1974 Campaign Finance Laws
a)             What led to it?
(1)           Corruption- Nixon took huge donations in exchange for political appointments
(2)           There was a law saying that corporations and unions could not give money from their general treasuries, but they were doing so anyway because there was no way to track and regulate the money
b)             Key provisions
(1)           $1,000 limit for individual contributions to prevent rich people from buying elections
(2)           Created rules that there would be a paper trail- had to fill out paperwork to give a donation so the government knows who is giving and how much
(3)           Created a government agency, the FEC, so supervise the money in campaigns
(4)           Corporations and unions could set up a PAC, which anyone could donate money to up to $5,000, and the PAC could give $5,000 to candidates, run ads, educate people, etc.  PACs can coordinate with candidates (which is why they have a hard money limit)
(5)           Candidates could spend as much of their own money as they want
c)             In what way did this reform fail and what was the loophole?
(1)           It made it very hard for challengers to raise money because an incumbent already has a base support
(2)           Rich candidates could spend as much of their own money, so it benefited the rich people
(3)           Loophole- soft money to political parties for “party building activities”
2.             McCain-Feingold (2002)
a)             What led to it?
(1)           Independent expenditures spending a lot of money and therefore calling the shots in the elections
(2)           Too much unregulated money in our campaigns
b)             Key provisions
(1)           Limits on independent expenditures
(2)           Raised the limit on individual contributions from $1,000 to $2,000
(3)           No soft money
c)             Loophole
(1)           527’s
3.             Citizens United decision and its effect on Independent Expenditures (2010)
a)             Led to the creation of Super PACs, which can spend unlimited funds endorsing candidates even in the 60 days before an election (unlike 527’s which could not endorse a specific candidate)
b)             Independent expenditures cannot coordinate with candidates and have soft money (today they are Super PACs).  PACs specifically raise money for candidates, can coordinate with candidates, and have hard money.
3/13/12
II.              Deconstructing Mitt Romney’s Campaign
A.             How is he attacking President Obama?
1.             Economy (which tends to be a key theme in elections.  A bad economy hurts the incumbent)
2.             Obama doesn’t represent American values and is soft on foreign policy (he shouldn’t be apologizing for who we are)
B.             How is he attacking his Republican opponents?  What advantages does he have over them?
1.             Attacks
a)             Attacking Santorum saying that Santorum doesn’t have electability and cannot win the general election
b)             Attacking Newt’s multiple wives
2.             Advantages
a)             The economy is a major issue, and that is his expertise
b)             Closest to the center
c)             Money- raised the most and has a lot of his own
d)             Better organized
C.            Is he being positive or negative?
1.             Leaning negative- he has a hard time making a positive image for himself, so he is attacking the other candidates
D.            What is Romney’s “theme”?
1.             Economy
E.             What voters is he targeting?
1.             Independents- blue collar workers
III.            The general election
A.             Will this election be based on position issues or valence issues?  What would be examples of each?
1.             Position issue- issues that divide the country and therefore politicians take different views (abortion, gay marriage, taxes, foreign policy, healthcare, etc.)
2.             Valence issue- everyone agrees on these issues, and people vote for whoever is more apt to deal with the issue (strong economy, low crime rate, etc.).  Within valence issues are position issues (we want a better economy, and there are different opinions on how to fix it)
B.             Do you feel people will vote “prospectively” or “retrospectively”?
1.             Prospective- voting based on looking towards the future.  Prospective voters tend to be more knowledgeable about the issues
2.             Retrospective- voting based on what happened in the past
3.             Most elections are a combination of both
C.            What’s the coalition that Romney will need to win?
1.             Democratic coalition needed to win
a)             Base- blacks and Jews (however Jewish support is slipping)
b)             Union workers and Catholics (but they are slipping too and becoming swing voters)
c)             Southern support (but this has disappeared)
d)             Hispanics (but Cubans vote Republican because they fled Communism and dislike government intervention in economics)
2.             Republican coalition
a)             Base= South
b)             Asians lean right
c)             White males
d)             Evangelical Christians and social conservatives
e)             Professional/ business people
f)               Farmers (but they are not loyal)
g)             Poor people (which is surprising)
3.             Romney’s coalition
a)             Independents
b)             Republican base
c)             A base based on economic concerns
D.            Will there be any “coattails”?
1.             Coattails- (learn on your own)
2.             If a president from a party wins, it will help congressmen from that party be elected for Congress as well
3.             We don’t see this so much anymore because the parties don’t mobilize us and we vote for individuals
IV.             

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